DR1 · DR10 · LN1 Conversion · Profitability Projections by Route
Mar 2 – Apr 14, 2026 · Nano Tier A Only · Fido Score 250–260
fido_model LIKE '%CG%' — this does not match 'GH_CONTROL_GROUP' (no 'CG' substring). The correct filter is fido_model = 'GH_CONTROL_GROUP', which is what this report uses.Experiment Structure — Nano Pilot Population
Non-eligible users
Fido Score 250–260
5% sample offered Nano
Counter Offer-eligible users
Fido Score 260–276
5% redirected to Nano
GHS 50–60 · All 2,885 disbursements
✓ Only active tier
443 clients received LN1
Full Fido product
274 loans · 33.6%
Credit cost
DR1 (any missed payment at all — DTR > 1) is the primary early-signal metric. Nano's DR1 is equivalent to Counter Offer, and materially higher than Personal — which is expected given its lower Fido score band.
Key takeaway: Nano DR1 (33.6%) is statistically indistinguishable from Counter Offer (33.2%) — the product that serves the next score band up. This is the clearest early validation signal: first-time borrowers in the 250–260 band are defaulting at the same rate as the established 260–276 product.
| Segment | Score Band | Total LN0 | Avg Loan | On-Time Repaid | LN1 Clients | DR1 | DR10 * |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Control Group | UCLL · GH_CONTROL_GROUP | 1,813 | GHS 279 | 671 | 374 | 34.6% | 6.5% |
| Personal | 276+ · GH_FIDO_MODEL% | 21,716 | GHS 281 | 9,473 | 4,888 | 22.9% | 1.2% |
| Counter Offer | 260–276 | 3,090 | GHS 148 | 1,263 | 596 | 33.2% | 1.1% |
| Nano Loan | 250–260 | 2,885 | GHS 60 | 1,176 | 443 | 33.6% | 15.1% |
LN1 Clients: Count of LN0 borrowers who repaid on time (on or before due date) and subsequently received a second disbursement. Does not include late repayers. Apr-06 and Apr-13 cohorts are excluded from LN1 calculations — too early for second loans to have been issued.
* DR10 methodology note: DR10 (marked with *) is from the PDF snapshot (Apr 12, 2026). It counts any loan where DTR > 10 — including loans repaid late and now fully closed. It is NOT "currently overdue 10+ days." Daily CURRENT_DATE() recalculation means DR10 shifts significantly as cohorts mature and is unreliable for cross-snapshot comparisons. DR1 is the primary metric for this analysis. Nano's high DR10 (15.1%) reflects early cohorts with a 7-day term structure; many late-but-repaid loans count as DR10 defaults.
Of all clients scored in each band during the pilot period (Mar 2 – Apr 14), what percentage actually received a loan? This measures offer-to-take-up conversion per eligibility tier. Source: ML.CLIENT_INFO · FIRST_FIDO_SCORE.
| Eligibility Band | Score Range | Total Eligible (Scored) | Disbursed | Disbursement Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal | 276+ | 27,524 | 18,718 | 68.0% |
| Counter Offer | 260–276 | 6,289 | 4,323 | 68.7% |
| Nano Loan | 250–260 | 3,922 | 2,320 | 59.2% |
Disbursement Rate by Band
Of Nano-eligible clients (250–260) who disbursed, the majority correctly received a Nano loan. A small share were routed to Counter Offer — likely where other business rules elevated them. For Counter Offer-eligible (260–276), a significant portion landed in the Control Group.
On the 9.5 pp gap: Nano-eligible clients (250–260) convert at 59.2% vs 68.7% for Counter Offer-eligible. Expected — lower-score clients face more disqualifying secondary checks (fraud, KYC, device risk, blacklists). The 40.8% who received no loan represent failed secondary checks or voluntary drop-off, not a product problem.
LN1 clients are LN0 borrowers who repaid on or before their due date and received a second disbursement. This measures the pilot's ability to convert first-time borrowers into repeat customers — the primary driver of long-term unit economics.
LN1 Clients — Count by Segment (of on-time LN0 repayers)
The overall 37.7% conversion rate is suppressed by immature cohorts where loans haven't had time to close. The two mature cohorts show a substantially stronger signal — and are the relevant benchmark for evaluating Nano's repeat borrowing thesis.
| Cohort Week | Total | On-Time Repaid | % On-Time | Late Repaid | Outstanding | On-Time Return Rate | Maturity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar-02 | 393 | 250 | 63.6% | 23 | 120 | 84.8% | Mature |
| Mar-09 | 475 | 270 | 56.8% | 33 | 172 | 68.2% | Mature |
| Mar-16 | 484 | 227 | 46.9% | 5 | 252 | 13.2% | Maturing |
| Mar-23 | 510 | 195 | 38.2% | 0 | 315 | 6.7% | Maturing |
| Mar-30 | 476 | 146 | 30.7% | 0 | 330 | 2.7% | Too early |
| Apr-06 | 460 | 85 | 18.5% | 0 | 375 | 0.0% | Too early |
| Apr-13 | 87 | 3 | 3.4% | 0 | 84 | 0.0% | Too early |
The signal from mature cohorts is strong. Nano borrowers who repay on time return for a second loan at 84.8% (Mar-02) and 68.2% (Mar-09). As more cohorts mature over the next 3–4 weeks, the overall on-time return rate will converge upward from the current 37.7%. The product's retention thesis is holding for borrowers who demonstrate on-time repayment behaviour.
DR1 is the most comparable signal across segments — it measures whether a borrower missed their due date at all, and is less sensitive to timing effects than DR10.
| Segment | Due (DTR1) | Defaulted (DTR1) | DR1 % | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal | 5,847 | 1,337 | 22.9% | Best — pre-qualified population |
| Counter Offer | 771 | 256 | 33.2% | In line with Nano / Control |
| Nano Loan | 815 | 274 | 33.6% | In line with Counter Offer |
| Control Group | 521 | 180 | 34.6% | In line |
Nano DR1 is not a red flag. At 33.6%, it is statistically indistinguishable from Counter Offer (33.2%) and Control Group (34.6%). Personal's lower DR1 (22.9%) reflects its higher-scoring, pre-qualified borrower base — not a product-level difference. Early delinquency risk is equivalent across the three comparable segments.
Nano Loan is designed to offer conservative credit to higher-risk clients (Fido score 250–260) who do not qualify for any standard Fido product. The commercial question is not how it compares to Counter Offer per loan, but whether it generates a viable revenue trajectory from a population that would otherwise produce zero revenue. The projection below uses current DR1 rates and the mature cohort LN1 signal as the basis.
This segment generates zero revenue without Nano. The mature cohort LN1 signal (84.8%) shows strong repeat borrowing behaviour. A projected LN1 DR1 of ~33% — applied to ~57 returning clients per 100 — gives a rough LN1 revenue contribution of GHS 3,400 per cohort. Revenue grows as borrowers graduate to larger loans over time.
Nano acts as a conservative entry point for the riskier sub-segment within the 260–276 band — clients who qualify on score but may carry higher behavioural risk. Starting them on GHS 60 limits credit exposure while building a repayment track record before graduating to Counter Offer. Viability depends on LN1 graduation rate as they move up the ladder.
Projection assumptions: LN1 loan size assumed equal to LN0 (GHS 60) for conservative estimate — no graduation to higher tiers yet in live data. LN1 DR1 assumed at ~33% (same as LN0 — no second-loan data yet to measure improvement). Mature cohort conversion of 84.8% used for LN1 projection. These are directional figures only, not a full P&L model.
Bottom line: Nano is commercially additive — it serves a population that produces no revenue otherwise and shows a strong early retention signal. The path to stronger unit economics runs through the LN1 graduation pipeline: on-time Nano repayers should be graduating to larger Counter Offer or Personal loans, not cycling at GHS 60 indefinitely. Fix that pipeline and the revenue trajectory improves materially.
Mar-02 on-time repayers return at 84.8% — the demand for a next product is there. Verify that repaid Nano clients are being shown and offered an LN1 product, and that routing logic from Nano graduation to the next ladder rung is working correctly.
On-time Nano repayers should be graduating to Counter Offer or Personal — not cycling at GHS 60. Confirm the graduation logic is live for both Group A (to Counter Offer) and Group B (to the most appropriate next product based on score at LN1). This is the primary lever for improving Nano's unit economics.
Nano band disbursement rate (59.2%) is 9.5 pp below Counter Offer and Personal (68–69%). Of 3,922 Nano-eligible clients scored in the pilot period, 1,602 received no loan. This gap is likely secondary checks (fraud, device risk, blacklists) but should be broken down: how much is voluntary drop-off vs system rejection vs fraud block?
The current DTR-based DR10 metric counts late-but-repaid loans as defaults. For a pilot product where loan urgency may be lower (GHS 60), this overstates credit loss. Separate "permanently delinquent" from "repaid 10–30 days late" for cleaner credit health reporting.
Current on-time return rates for Mar-16 onward are suppressed by immaturity. As these cohorts close, the overall return rate will converge. Re-run this analysis in 3 weeks before any go/no-go decision on the pilot.
Return rate is computed by joining LN0 clients to the full loan_info_tbl to find any subsequent disbursement (LN ≥ 1). On-time return rate denominates only over clients with is_repaid = TRUE AND dtr <= 0.